2026 Q3 Market Commentary
If the first half of 2026 asked whether the economy could absorb an oil shock, the third quarter asked a trickier question: can the economy also absorb rapidly rising interest rates? Over the summer, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the first time since 2023 under its new Chair, Kevin Warsh, the 10-year Treasury yield climbed above 5% for the first time since 2007, Brent crude returned to roughly $100 per barrel, and U.S. diesel prices hit a record. The midterm elections, meanwhile, are now only weeks away.
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